In 1750, the year that marks the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution, the “Third World” including China, India, Pakistan and the Ottoman Empire produced 73% of the world’s goods and services, whereas Europe produced 23.2% and the USA 0.1%. At the end of the first 150 years, and particularly with the “steam revolution” between 1830- 1860, Europe’s contribution to the production of world’s goods and services increased to 62% and the USA’s to 23.6%, whereas the third World’s contribution decreased to 11%. In 1978, China’s contribution to world production declined to 2%. In 1953, the USA alone contributed 53% to world production. The USA was the greatest hegemon of the Capitalist System, the West, and the Cold War. It meticulously created the international economic environment under its own control, based on the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, the World Trade Organization, the UN, and NATO.
At the beginning of 1980, Atlantic cooperation between the USA and the EU dominated with 52.4% of the world’s goods and service production, whereas China and India’s share was just 5.3%. Today, the very same share of China and India increased to 25% and the USA-EU share diminished to 39%. The OECD report, “Global Economy 2060,” suggests that the share of the China-India duo will increase to 39% and the share of the USA-EU duo will reduce to 30% in 2030. It is predicted that the China-India share will increase to 46% and the USA-EU share will dip to 25% in 2060. In international reports, after 220 years the return of Asia is being discussed, using expressions such as, “the Sun is once more rising in the East.” While the Atlantic Plateau subsides, the rise of the Pacific Plateau is the number one item on the agenda of the global political economy. A new, Pacific-weighted game is played out in the world political economy, Putin is aware of this, and therefore, Russia is trying to deepen its relationship with China and India. The existence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to consolidate this cooperation. Turkey, right in the middle of this change in the global center of gravity, shines out as the pivotal country that can change the fate of Eurasia. The choices that Turkey and India make will bring with them permanent outcomes regarding the change in the global center of gravity. In the meantime, the Atlantic is almost paralyzed in the name of preventing the terror atrocities in Turkey and in the region. It is almost as if it is trying to stop this change in the global center of gravity by allowing this chaos. However, the Atlantic Wing should sufficiently comprehend the importance of Turkey, and thereby establish a political process that is more embracing, and supportive of the role of Turkey in the region. The Pacific Wing is immediately utilizing political mistakes made in the Atlantic Wing. Hence, Turkey, taking part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with dialogue partner status, became the term chairman of the Energy Club of the Organization for 2017. Turkey, the pivot country
The SCO Energy Club was founded in 2013 with the participation of the People’s Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkey, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Belarus, and Sri Lanka. The club aims to improve the dialog on energy safety among the member countries, strengthen the energy strategies, and increase the cooperation opportunities
in the field of energy. The SCO member states meet approximately 36% of the world’s electric production, 23% of the natural gas production, 20.8% of the crude oil production and 60.2% of the coal production. Conversely, member states consume approximately 28% of the natural gas, 25.2% of the crude oil and 65.1% of the coal. It is said that the Energy Club will have an important role in the implementation of the decisions in energy field in the “Multinational Trade and Economic Cooperation Program” of SCO, which is accepted by the heads of state and government. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Berat Albayrak, noted that other than the main members, Turkey being the chairman of the first term in this league, which has the greatest share in the world energy production and consumption, will contribute to the reinforcement of Turkey’s energy strategies and to the deepening of the country’s energy cooperation. The global economic system is standing on the verge of a great paradigm shift. Starting from the late 1990s, the greed and cupidity of the international finance system, which had long been supported in the name of “globalization”, brought forward the serious disequilibrium and injustices in the world economy. So much so that the increasing disequilibrium between the real sector profitability and financial system profitability around the world promoted a sense of deep injustice, which can be expressed as 1 to 7. For this reason, a new growth model based on human assets and production on a global
scale and correspondingly, the construction of a new monetary policy and fiscal policy, is on the agenda of all leading countries. This deep injustice also brought about the “Make America great again” campaign slogan of Trump, the 45th elected president of the USA.
If the diagnosis is incorrect, the treatment is ineffective Consensus in OPEC and Petroleum war Once China completes the transformation process in its economy in 2020 with its 13.5 year-long development plan, a period of new and increased pricing will begin on a global scale, primarily in petrol and goods, and the world economy will surrender to inflation. At this point, a two-year period is available for all of leading countries to designate a new growth model. Therefore, in the next two years, central banks should focus on a new monetary policy suitable for the new growth
model rather than focusing on inflation. In this period, it is critically important not to give priority to the fluctuation in exchange rates while focusing on production and a new growth model. Therefore, most of the leading countries do not react to their currency units losing value. Speaking of the global prices of goods, the USA changed its policy on petroleum production in its own territories after 44 years and has increased it from five to 9.5 million barrels since the spring of 2013. Furthermore, the USA changed its strategy to become a net energy exporter, and China decelerated its economy during the transformation process; all of this causing petroleum prices to fall to even less than 40 dollars for a while. Since mid-2014, all petroleum exporting countries,
but particularly Russia and the Gulf States, have been having a hard time. Thinking that the strategy of the USA was to coerce it into reducing production and that the USA was triggering a “market share war”, OPEC refused to reduce production.
Nevertheless, with a global petroleum price band between 40-50 dollars it started to put a strain on the export incomes and budget performances of the petroleum producer countries. At the end of an almost two month long discussion and meeting marathon, the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna is, for the first time in eight years (that is since 2008), an agreement on reducing petroleum supply. The information leaked to the economy media suggests that OPEC will reduce the daily petroleum supply by 1.2 million barrels, from approximately 33.7 million barrels to 32.5 million barrels. Whether this can set the global petroleum price band to 50-60 dollars will be proved over time. The daily production of Saudi Arabia is 10,532 million barrels, Iraq is 4,561 million barrels, and Iran is 3,69 million barrels. The USA’s change in petroleum production strategy and the steps Obama government has taken about Iran have, for the first time, brought this much tension to the international diplomatic relationship between Saudi Arabia and the USA; the maps the USA media published regarding how Saudi Arabia will be divided into four separate countries and governments in the future also put more tension on the already poor relationship. The next few months will show us what kind of progress has been made in the petroleum war that has been going on for nearly 100 years.
Turkey and Istanbul are continuing to conduct a succession of important international summits at a global and regional scale. In the 7th Bosphorus Summit, conducted by International Cooperation Platform, the main theme of the year was “global future and global vision.” With 70 participating countries, the vision for the next 50 years, the increasing role of the private sector
in inclusive growth, opportunities for cooperation between Turkey and first and second generation neighbor countries were discussed.At a time when the rapprochement process between Turkey and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was being followed closely, Erdoğan gave many critically important messages at the Summit. Regarding growth, Erdoğan pointed out that as countries
have made an incorrect diagnosis they are therefore looking for the treatment in the wrong places and that supply will be produced neither by robots nor financial tools but only by humans, and that the path to sustainable growth can only be achieved by humans, or rather by improving the means by which people can live in peace and prosperity. Erdoğan told his audience that in the future, the factor that will determine the winner both in trade and war, is the human factor as well as technological superiority, and he stressed that without a population increase, without the establishment of a financial system that supports production and investment, and without the adoption of a consciousness based on justice in every area, a healthy global future cannot be created. We should take note of these messages. Important messages from Erdoğan
The latest projections from the IMF indicate that the world economy will grow by 3.1% in 2016, and by 3.4% in 2017. When the global growth performance prior to the global crisis in 2008 is taken into consideration, we are down by 1.5-2 points. This is a reflection of poor global consumption and problems in global trade on production. If there is an overall loss of momentum in the world
economy, it is impossible for this not to be reflected in global goods prices. Based on 2010 prices, which were accepted to be 100 points, energy prices were 128 points in 2012, but decreased to as low as 55 points in 2016. Global petroleum prices are set to close at an average of $ 43 dollars a barrel in 2016. Agricultural produce was 114 points in 2012 but decreased to 89 points, whereas metal and mineral prices were 96 points but decreased to 61. This trend in global goods prices is a sign of the absence of a global inflation risk since 2015, which significantly simplified the work of leading central banks. The period of soft monetary policy to support the recovery of the economy of the USA, the EU and Japan and to support economic activity in China, was based on the absence of the risk of large scale global inflation. Projections concerning 2017 show that a small recovery in global goods prices will continue, there will not be any risk of global inflation and correspondingly the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan may follow an expansive monetary policy for at least one more year. The World Bank’s 2017 projection shows that the average petroleum price of 43 dollars in 2016 will reach an average of 55 dollars in 2017. In 2017, energy prices are expected to increase by 24%, agricultural prices by 1.4%, and metal and mineral prices by 4.1%. No risk of global inflation in
Prices of many critically important sector and goods prices will be set once the elected president Donald Trump takes office in January 20th. It is a matter of concern as to whether Trump will carry his decision into effect regarding the withdrawal of the USA from many international trade agreements of which it is now part. Withdrawal from the global climate change agreement signed in Paris and from the Trans-Pacific Cooperation Agreement, which the USA signed with 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific, could increase the fluctuation of global energy prices. Also, bearing in mind that OPEC members and non-member countries agreed to reduce petroleum production, it should not come as a surprise if petroleum prices reached a mean of 55 dollars in 2017. Starting from the spring of 2013, the USA changed its strategy regarding energy politics dating back to 1972, and decided to become a net exporter of energy, and the impact of this on global energy markets should be closely monitored. This step almost represents the beginning of the period of increased tensions in USA-Saudi Arabia relations that has been continuing for the last two years. Trump’s decision to appoint Rex Tillerson, CEO of the natural gas company, Exxon Mobile, as the foreign secretary, should also be noted. With Trump, a more sector-friendly White House Management is mentioned, which will support the petroleum and natural gas sector in the USA, streamlining the exploration and production regulations and facilitating the approval of pipelines. It is also being discussed that with Trump improved legislation and new exploration permits could increase the global competitive capacity of the USA in the field of energy and new investments could be made to this sector. Time will tell whether renewable energy will have an opportunity to meet the energy requirements of the USA and if state policies will differ greatly from one another in the Trump era.The effect of Trump on energy prices The International Energy Agency revealed their global energy market outlook report for 2016 in a meeting at Sabancı University, Istanbul. The report highlights that there has been a decrease in petrol investments for the last three years, and that this is an unusual situation in the history of economics. Declining investments could pose a serious
problem in a few years time. The demand for petroleum has decreased due to the global crises and even if it maintains its current state, the world economy could face serious problems in terms of petroleum demand. The report also emphasizes that should the decline in upstream expenses in 2015-2016 go on for another year, a short-term, inversely proportional risk in the petroleum market may arise. If the new project approvals are low in 2017 for the third consecutive year, severe supply-demand disequilibrium for the petroleum industry could arise in the early 2020s. Unlike petroleum, on the completion of global investments, a significant worldwide abundance of LNG is expected within the next five years. According to the report, the share of LNG is expected to reach 53% by 2040. The new agenda in energy is the LNG revolution. Before long, the LNG share will significantly increase, particularly with the gas coming from the USA and Austria. This will reduce the prices and strengthen the hands of energy importing countries such as Turkey. LNG revolution is on its way
The year 2016 has caused significant agitation in the Western Alliance, since the referendum in Britain resulted in favor of Brexit and Donald Trump was elected as the 45th president of the USA; whereas, in the first half of 2016, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership was the leading subject in the global economy. The OECD’s “Looking to 2060: Long-term global growth prospects” report published in November 2012 did not paint a pretty picture for the USA and the Euro zone between 2011 and 2030. Thus, with the help of President Obama, a new economic partnership project for the two shores of Atlantic was proposed. Even with conjecture over increased dissatisfaction in some of the EU member countries due to the ongoing arduous negotiations under supervision of Germany, Britain’s Brexit decision was a complete shock for the future of the EU Project and TTIP. The election of Trump, who is talking about withdrawing the USA from all international agreements, and who is completely against NAFTA, TPP and TTIP, was the second shock for the Atlantic Alliance. Starting from Trump’s official inauguration on January 20, his political strategy for the EU, the complete cancellation of TTIP, increasing uncertainty on the future of the US military bases in Europe, and the USA backing out from providing military security to the EU, could trigger events in the Atlantic Alliance that would be ongoing for 60 years, bringing the two shores of the Atlantic face to face. Although the gathering of foreign ministers of EU member countries on November 14, in the absence of the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Hungary, stated that the EU has numerous local problems of a high priority, concerns over TTIP negotiations being tough for the EU in the Trump era, Trump’s words on how European countries should spend more for NATO, the possibility of improvement in the relationship between Russia and the USA in the Trump era, the future of the nuclear agreement with Iran, and subjects of climate change are causing significant unrest in the EU. Atlantic Cooperation or Atlantic opposition?
Tension between the two shores of the Atlantic in 2016 is not only limited to Brexit and Trump. In a period when there were complaints about how TTIP negotiations were not going fast enough, in addition to the Volkswagen scandal that occurred in 2015, regarded as a threat to the EU and Germany, the EU’s tax penalty against Apple at the end of summer 2016 was almost an eye for an eye. VW was accused of deliberately showing exhaust emission values in the USA to be lower than the actual value, and then faced a heavy environmental fine, which could have been more than 10 billion dollars but ended up being less than 7 billion dollars. The company had to explain why 11 million cars, sold worldwide, contained software that was found to be “inconvenient” by the USA auditors. In the second half of September, the USA’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated that the exhaust emission tests performed on Volkswagen’s diesel cars during the roll-out were faulty. The report called upon the German automobile manufacturer to withdraw the half million cars from the market. At a time when global competition is getting very rough and when the overall picture in global growth and trade is not pretty, Germany suffered a significant loss of reputation with the VW scandal. At this point, almost exactly one year later, EU hit Apple with a tax penalty for 13 billion Euros. On account of the fact that a tax reduction was made against the rules of the EU, Apple was faced with the decision to pay back 13 billion Euros to Ireland. EU Commission officer, Margrethe Vestager, reminded member countries that they could not provide tax concessions to the companies they preferred, as this would be against EU legislation. The EU Commission had previously fined American coffee franchise, Starbucks, as well as the multinational automobile manufacturer, Fiat Chrysler, due to their tax policies in Europe. This penalty marathon on the two shores of the Atlantic is an indicator that the relationship between the USA and the EU may not be easy in the new Trump era. VW versus Apple 63 Turkey’s Here-Nisan 2017
It is interesting how the Volkswagen scandal of “fraudulent measurement of exhaust levels” brought two EU institutions face to face. The commission appointed by the European Parliament to investigate the scandal stated that the executive organ of the EU, the European Commission, had known about the scandal since 2010 but did not take action. In the investigation report prepared by the European Parliament, the European Commission in particular was accused of “negligence” and “overlooking the scandal.” According to the report, which deduced negligence, the European Commission Research Center knew that the amount of nitric oxide released by the cars on the street in 2010 was higher than that released during the laboratory tests. The findings, which resulted in the European Commission being accused of overlooking the scandal, were also found in the internal correspondence of the Volkswagen Group. According to the report, the EU administration
did not tackle the emission scandal, due to their concern that the automobile sector would be negatively affected, and as an additional budget would be required for the audit. Spain, France and Italy in particular have been actively lobbying in Brussels in order to prevent stricter rules for the automotive sector. Also, a short while ago, an investigation was initiated into seven EU member countries for overlooking the fraudulent diesel car tests and protecting their own business community. EU Commission is also on the rack and Its Features What is Big Data? Big Data Big Data, which we come across nowadays more often, is a phenomenon which we have been living with for a long time but we are not aware of its development even if it is a concept which has emerged as a result of the advancement of technology and its increased area of use. In short, Big Data is a form in which data obtained from different sources such as social media shares, photo archives and constantly recorded “log” documents are transformed into something that is both meaningful and processable. Today, database experts classify the interrelated existing data in a structured manner in relational databases. With the advancement of technology and the development of Internet, the power of information has come to the forefront nowadays too and many phenomenon in the Internet started to be referred as “Information Dump” as keeping this data in our databases and using them in reporting systems were
seen extremely difficult. Software companies
thinking that meaningful data can be harvested
from these dumps carried out their research
and development studies with this thinking and
created the phenomenon known as Big Data.
Existing data have been kept in designated
numerical or verbal containers and designed
tables until recent history. But now, when
Facebook posts of a customer need to be
tracked, data types that are difficult to associate
with reporting software used in data such as
photo, music and video, are included. Company
executives are making decisions thanks to
the reports that are created through reporting
systems operating in these databases. But
there are a lot more data sets that cannot
exactly provide these associations and cannot
be categorized, as well. Today, the utilization
of all these data has become a necessity and
valuable information which can be useful has
started to come out of information dump.
1. 90% of all data in the world has been created
in the last two years.
2. There are 2,923 million internet users who
account for 40% of the world population. 73.4%
of online population is accessing the internet
through mobile phones.
3. Having a market volume of 10.2 billion dollars,
the Big Data is expected to be worth 53.4 billion
dollars by 2017.
4. 900 Exabyte data which accounts for 70% of
the digital world, is created by users.
5. Companies store 80% of their all data.
6. It is anticipated that one third of all data will be
stored in clouds by 2020.
7. White House makes an investment of 200
million dollars for Big Data projects.
8. A 10 % increase in access to data leads to an
additional net income of 65.7 million dollars for
Fortune 1000 companies.
9. In 2013, 2,712,239,573 internet users made
1.2 trillion searches in Google.
10. Over 570 new websites are created in every
minute of a day.
11. Every month, 1 billion authentic users visit
YouTube and they watch over 6 billion hours of
video.
12. Twitter, which has 271 million active users
per month, receives 500 million tweets per day.
13. Facebook has 1.32 billion active monthly
users and 1.07 billion of which are mobile users.
14. Having a 200 million active users per
month, 60 million photos are shared every day
in Instagram.
15. Linkedin has more than 300 million
members and over 3 million companies from
over 200 countries.
There is some statistical information
to better understand the place of the
Big Data in daily life:
Leave a Reply